Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Galapagar vs Getafe II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Galapagar
Galapagar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Getafe II
Getafe II
12/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Estadio Galapagar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Galapagar35%
×Draw26%
Getafe II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galapagar
1.27
Getafe II
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 35 away

creates per match

Galapagar
1.55
Getafe II
1.29

allows per match

Galapagar
1.44
Getafe II
1.00

finishing

Galapagar+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galapagar ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Galapagar or draw
61%
Galapagar or Getafe II
74%
Draw or Getafe II
65%

Winning margin

Galapagar wins by 2+
15%
Getafe II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Galapagar 1+ goals
72%
Galapagar 2+ goals
36%
Galapagar 3+ goals
14%
Getafe II 1+ goals
74%
Getafe II 2+ goals
39%
Getafe II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Galapagar (draw refunded)
47%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galapagar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galapagar attack 1.55 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Getafe II attack 1.29 + Galapagar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Galapagar scores more
35%
level
26%
Getafe II scores more
39%

Getafe II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Galapagar 0–0 Getafe II

Galapagar and Getafe II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Galapagar in Madrid.