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Galapagar vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Galapagar
Galapagar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
1/19/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 18Estadio Galapagar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Galapagar50%
×Draw24%
El Álamo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galapagar
1.69
El Álamo
1.15

Galapagar creates 47% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 47 away

creates per match

Galapagar
1.55
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Galapagar
1.44
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Galapagar+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galapagar ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Galapagar or draw
74%
Galapagar or El Álamo
76%
Draw or El Álamo
50%

Winning margin

Galapagar wins by 2+
27%
El Álamo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Galapagar 1+ goals
82%
Galapagar 2+ goals
50%
Galapagar 3+ goals
24%
El Álamo 1+ goals
68%
El Álamo 2+ goals
32%
El Álamo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Galapagar (draw refunded)
66%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galapagar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galapagar attack 1.55 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Galapagar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Galapagar scores more
50%
level
24%
El Álamo scores more
26%

Galapagar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Galapagar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galapagar vs El Álamo

Galapagar beat El Álamo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Galapagar in Madrid.