Galapagar 3–5 Cala Pozuelo: Result & Stats

Galapagar

3 – 5

HT: 2 – 5

Cala Pozuelo

5/4/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 33Estadio Galapagar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Galapagar44%

×Draw24%

Cala Pozuelo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalapagarExpected goals in this matchCala Pozuelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.34

Galapagar

1.60

Cala Pozuelo

1.34

Galapagar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 17 away

1.55

creates per match

1.24

1.44

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Galapagar

1.55

Cala Pozuelo

1.24

allows per match

Galapagar

1.44

Cala Pozuelo

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galapagar+0.00on par

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galapagar ↓

Cala Pozuelo →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Galapagar or draw

68%

Galapagar or Cala Pozuelo

76%

Draw or Cala Pozuelo

56%

Winning margin

Galapagar wins by 2+

22%

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Galapagar 1+ goals

80%

Galapagar 2+ goals

47%

Galapagar 3+ goals

22%

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals

74%

Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals

39%

Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Galapagar (draw refunded)

58%

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Galapagar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

Cala Pozuelo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Galapagar attack 1.55 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.24 + Galapagar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Galapagar scores more

44%

level

24%

Cala Pozuelo scores more

32%

Galapagar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Galapagar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff