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Galapagar vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Galapagar
Galapagar
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
4/2/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Estadio Galapagar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Galapagar39%
×Draw25%
Alcobendas Sport36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galapagar
1.43
Alcobendas Sport
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 117 away

creates per match

Galapagar
1.55
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

Galapagar
1.44
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

Galapagar+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galapagar ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Galapagar or draw
64%
Galapagar or Alcobendas Sport
75%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
61%

Winning margin

Galapagar wins by 2+
18%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Galapagar 1+ goals
76%
Galapagar 2+ goals
42%
Galapagar 3+ goals
17%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
75%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
40%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Galapagar (draw refunded)
52%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galapagar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galapagar attack 1.55 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Galapagar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Galapagar scores more
39%
level
25%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
36%

Galapagar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Galapagar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galapagar vs Alcobendas Sport

Alcobendas Sport beat Galapagar 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 2, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Galapagar in Madrid.