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Galapagar vs AD Parla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Galapagar
Galapagar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AD Parla
AD Parla
11/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 12Estadio Galapagar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Galapagar46%
×Draw25%
AD Parla29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galapagar
1.60
AD Parla
1.21

Galapagar creates 32% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 98 away

creates per match

Galapagar
1.55
AD Parla
0.99

allows per match

Galapagar
1.44
AD Parla
1.65

finishing

Galapagar+0.00on par
AD Parla+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galapagar ↓

AD Parla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Galapagar or draw
71%
Galapagar or AD Parla
75%
Draw or AD Parla
54%

Winning margin

Galapagar wins by 2+
24%
AD Parla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Galapagar 1+ goals
80%
Galapagar 2+ goals
47%
Galapagar 3+ goals
22%
AD Parla 1+ goals
70%
AD Parla 2+ goals
34%
AD Parla 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Galapagar (draw refunded)
62%
AD Parla (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galapagar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

AD Parla away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galapagar attack 1.55 + AD Parla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

AD Parla attack 0.99 + Galapagar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Galapagar scores more
46%
level
25%
AD Parla scores more
29%

Galapagar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Galapagar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Galapagar 3–0 AD Parla

Galapagar beat AD Parla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Galapagar in Madrid.