Galanta 2–1 Marcelová: Result & Stats

Galanta

FT

2 – 1

Marcelová

8/15/2021

3. liga - West · West - 2Futbalový štadión FC Slovan Galanta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Galanta55%

×Draw23%

Marcelová22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalantaExpected goals in this matchMarcelová

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.10

Galanta

1.88

Marcelová

1.10

Galanta creates 71% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 24 away

1.72

creates per match

1.29

0.92

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Galanta

1.72

Marcelová

1.29

allows per match

Galanta

0.92

Marcelová

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galanta+0.00on par

Marcelová+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galanta ↓

Marcelová →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Galanta or draw

78%

Galanta or Marcelová

77%

Draw or Marcelová

45%

Winning margin

Galanta wins by 2+

32%

Marcelová wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Galanta 1+ goals

85%

Galanta 2+ goals

56%

Galanta 3+ goals

29%

Marcelová 1+ goals

67%

Marcelová 2+ goals

30%

Marcelová 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Galanta (draw refunded)

72%

Marcelová (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galanta at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 85 matches

Marcelová away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galanta attack 1.72 + Marcelová defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.88

Marcelová attack 1.29 + Galanta defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Galanta scores more

55%

level

23%

Marcelová scores more

22%

Galanta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Galanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff