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Galanta vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 3. liga - West 2020

Galanta
Galanta
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
6/8/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 30Futbalový štadión FC Slovan Galanta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Galanta42%
×Draw27%
Lokomotíva Zvolen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galanta
1.36
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.13

Galanta creates 20% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Galanta
1.72
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.33

allows per match

Galanta
0.92
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.00

finishing

Galanta+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galanta ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Galanta or draw
69%
Galanta or Lokomotíva Zvolen
73%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
58%

Winning margin

Galanta wins by 2+
20%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Galanta 1+ goals
74%
Galanta 2+ goals
39%
Galanta 3+ goals
16%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
68%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
31%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Galanta (draw refunded)
57%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galanta at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 85 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galanta attack 1.72 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.33 + Galanta defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Galanta scores more
42%
level
27%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
31%

Galanta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Galanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Galanta vs Lokomotíva Zvolen

Lokomotíva Zvolen beat Galanta 1-0 in 3. liga - West on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FC Slovan Galanta in Galanta.