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Gala Fairydean Rovers vs Strathspey Thistle — FA Cup 2019

Gala Fairydean Rovers
Gala Fairydean Rovers
FT
8 – 2
HT: 5 – 2
Strathspey Thistle
Strathspey Thistle
9/23/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundNetherdale Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gala Fairydean Rovers79%
×Draw12%
Strathspey Thistle9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gala Fairydean Rovers
3.55
Strathspey Thistle
1.19

Gala Fairydean Rovers creates 198% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gala Fairydean Rovers
2.43
Strathspey Thistle
0.67

allows per match

Gala Fairydean Rovers
1.71
Strathspey Thistle
4.67

finishing

Gala Fairydean Rovers+0.00on par
Strathspey Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gala Fairydean Rovers ↓

Strathspey Thistle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Gala Fairydean Rovers or draw
91%
Gala Fairydean Rovers or Strathspey Thistle
88%
Draw or Strathspey Thistle
21%

Winning margin

Gala Fairydean Rovers wins by 2+
62%
Strathspey Thistle wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gala Fairydean Rovers 1+ goals
97%
Gala Fairydean Rovers 2+ goals
86%
Gala Fairydean Rovers 3+ goals
67%
Strathspey Thistle 1+ goals
70%
Strathspey Thistle 2+ goals
33%
Strathspey Thistle 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gala Fairydean Rovers (draw refunded)
90%
Strathspey Thistle (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gala Fairydean Rovers at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Strathspey Thistle away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gala Fairydean Rovers attack 2.43 + Strathspey Thistle defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.55

Strathspey Thistle attack 0.67 + Gala Fairydean Rovers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Gala Fairydean Rovers scores more
79%
level
12%
Strathspey Thistle scores more
9%

Gala Fairydean Rovers at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Gala Fairydean Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gala Fairydean Rovers vs Strathspey Thistle

Gala Fairydean Rovers beat Strathspey Thistle 8-2 in FA Cup on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Netherdale Football Ground in Galashiels.