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Gala Fairydean Rovers vs Sauchie Juniors — FA Cup 2019

Gala Fairydean Rovers
Gala Fairydean Rovers
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Sauchie Juniors
Sauchie Juniors
9/17/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundNetherdale Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gala Fairydean Rovers39%
×Draw22%
Sauchie Juniors39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gala Fairydean Rovers
1.83
Sauchie Juniors
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Gala Fairydean Rovers
2.43
Sauchie Juniors
2.00

allows per match

Gala Fairydean Rovers
1.71
Sauchie Juniors
1.22

finishing

Gala Fairydean Rovers+0.00on par
Sauchie Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gala Fairydean Rovers ↓

Sauchie Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gala Fairydean Rovers or draw
61%
Gala Fairydean Rovers or Sauchie Juniors
78%
Draw or Sauchie Juniors
61%

Winning margin

Gala Fairydean Rovers wins by 2+
20%
Sauchie Juniors wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Gala Fairydean Rovers 1+ goals
84%
Gala Fairydean Rovers 2+ goals
54%
Gala Fairydean Rovers 3+ goals
28%
Sauchie Juniors 1+ goals
84%
Sauchie Juniors 2+ goals
55%
Sauchie Juniors 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gala Fairydean Rovers (draw refunded)
49%
Sauchie Juniors (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gala Fairydean Rovers at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Sauchie Juniors away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gala Fairydean Rovers attack 2.43 + Sauchie Juniors defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sauchie Juniors attack 2.00 + Gala Fairydean Rovers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gala Fairydean Rovers scores more
39%
level
22%
Sauchie Juniors scores more
39%

Gala Fairydean Rovers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gala Fairydean Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Gala Fairydean Rovers 1–4 Sauchie Juniors

Sauchie Juniors beat Gala Fairydean Rovers 4-1 in FA Cup on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Netherdale Football Ground in Galashiels.