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Gala Fairydean Rovers vs Cumbernauld Colts — League #731 2026

Gala Fairydean Rovers
Gala Fairydean Rovers
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Cumbernauld Colts
Cumbernauld Colts
3/14/2026League #731League #731

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gala Fairydean Rovers29%
×Draw22%
Cumbernauld Colts49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gala Fairydean Rovers
1.50
Cumbernauld Colts
2.00

Cumbernauld Colts creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Gala Fairydean Rovers
2.00
Cumbernauld Colts
2.33

allows per match

Gala Fairydean Rovers
1.67
Cumbernauld Colts
1.00

finishing

Gala Fairydean Rovers+0.00on par
Cumbernauld Colts+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gala Fairydean Rovers ↓

Cumbernauld Colts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gala Fairydean Rovers or draw
51%
Gala Fairydean Rovers or Cumbernauld Colts
78%
Draw or Cumbernauld Colts
71%

Winning margin

Gala Fairydean Rovers wins by 2+
13%
Cumbernauld Colts wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Gala Fairydean Rovers 1+ goals
78%
Gala Fairydean Rovers 2+ goals
44%
Gala Fairydean Rovers 3+ goals
19%
Cumbernauld Colts 1+ goals
86%
Cumbernauld Colts 2+ goals
59%
Cumbernauld Colts 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Gala Fairydean Rovers (draw refunded)
37%
Cumbernauld Colts (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gala Fairydean Rovers at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Cumbernauld Colts away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gala Fairydean Rovers attack 2.00 + Cumbernauld Colts defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cumbernauld Colts attack 2.33 + Gala Fairydean Rovers defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gala Fairydean Rovers scores more
29%
level
22%
Cumbernauld Colts scores more
49%

Cumbernauld Colts at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cumbernauld Colts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gala Fairydean Rovers vs Cumbernauld Colts

Cumbernauld Colts beat Gala Fairydean Rovers 3-2 in League #731 on March 14, 2026.