Gala Fairydean Rovers 0–1 Annan Athletic

Gala Fairydean Rovers

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Annan Athletic

A. Smith 51'

11/27/2021

FA Cup · 3rd RoundNetherdale Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gala Fairydean Rovers51%

×Draw20%

Annan Athletic29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gala Fairydean RoversExpected goals in this matchAnnan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.73

Gala Fairydean Rovers

2.34

Annan Athletic

1.73

Gala Fairydean Rovers creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

2.43

creates per match

1.75

1.71

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Gala Fairydean Rovers

2.43

Annan Athletic

1.75

allows per match

Gala Fairydean Rovers

1.71

Annan Athletic

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gala Fairydean Rovers+0.00on par

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gala Fairydean Rovers ↓

Annan Athletic →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Gala Fairydean Rovers or draw

71%

Gala Fairydean Rovers or Annan Athletic

80%

Draw or Annan Athletic

49%

Winning margin

Gala Fairydean Rovers wins by 2+

31%

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gala Fairydean Rovers 1+ goals

90%

Gala Fairydean Rovers 2+ goals

67%

Gala Fairydean Rovers 3+ goals

41%

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

82%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

52%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Gala Fairydean Rovers (draw refunded)

64%

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gala Fairydean Rovers at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gala Fairydean Rovers attack 2.43 + Annan Athletic defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.34

Annan Athletic attack 1.75 + Gala Fairydean Rovers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gala Fairydean Rovers scores more

51%

level

20%

Annan Athletic scores more

29%

Gala Fairydean Rovers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gala Fairydean Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

C. Birch

46'

S. Swinglehurst← C. Birch

51'

A. Smith↳ S. Swinglehurst

56'

M. Scott← Z. Murray

71'

T. Wallace← T. Goss

79'

L. Grant← C. Chalmers

84'

C. Hall

85'

L. Campbell← M. Berry

85'

I. Anderson← K. Fleming

Gala

Annan

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Hastings

56'▲M. Scott←▼Z. Murray

79'▲L. Grant←▼C. Chalmers

85'▲L. Campbell←▼M. Berry

Gala Fairydean Rovers substitutes

14Scott15Grant12Campbell17Roue16Addison20McCready

Manager: P. Murphy

46'▲S. Swinglehurst←▼C. Birch

71'▲T. Wallace←▼T. Goss

85'▲I. Anderson←▼K. Fleming

Annan Athletic substitutes

14Swinglehurst15Wallace16Anderson18Purdue20Steele12Adamson17Hunter19McCartney