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Gaj vs HAŠK — League #216 2026

Gaj
Gaj
FT
0 – 1
HAŠK
HAŠK
3/17/2024League #216League #216 · Center - 20Igralište NK Gaj Mače

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gaj62%
×Draw25%
HAŠK13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaj
1.54
HAŠK
0.55

Gaj creates 180% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 21 away

creates per match

Gaj
1.33
HAŠK
0.76

allows per match

Gaj
0.33
HAŠK
1.76

finishing

Gaj+0.00on par
HAŠK+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaj ↓

HAŠK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gaj or draw
87%
Gaj or HAŠK
75%
Draw or HAŠK
38%

Winning margin

Gaj wins by 2+
33%
HAŠK wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gaj 1+ goals
79%
Gaj 2+ goals
45%
Gaj 3+ goals
20%
HAŠK 1+ goals
42%
HAŠK 2+ goals
11%
HAŠK 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Gaj (draw refunded)
82%
HAŠK (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaj at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

HAŠK away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaj attack 1.33 + HAŠK defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

HAŠK attack 0.76 + Gaj defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gaj scores more
62%
level
25%
HAŠK scores more
13%

Gaj at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gaj vs HAŠK

HAŠK beat Gaj 1-0 in League #216 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Igralište NK Gaj Mače in Mače.