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Gais vs Vänersborgs IF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Gais
Gais
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vänersborgs IF
Vänersborgs IF
6/18/2022Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 13Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gais60%
×Draw22%
Vänersborgs IF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.92
Vänersborgs IF
0.94

Gais creates 104% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Gais
2.27
Vänersborgs IF
1.27

allows per match

Gais
0.60
Vänersborgs IF
1.56

finishing

Gais+0.00on par
Vänersborgs IF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Vänersborgs IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gais or draw
82%
Gais or Vänersborgs IF
78%
Draw or Vänersborgs IF
40%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
36%
Vänersborgs IF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
85%
Gais 2+ goals
57%
Gais 3+ goals
30%
Vänersborgs IF 1+ goals
61%
Vänersborgs IF 2+ goals
24%
Vänersborgs IF 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
77%
Vänersborgs IF (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Vänersborgs IF away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 2.27 + Vänersborgs IF defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.92

Vänersborgs IF attack 1.27 + Gais defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gais scores more
60%
level
22%
Vänersborgs IF scores more
18%

Gais at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gais vs Vänersborgs IF

Gais beat Vänersborgs IF 2-0 in Ettan - Södra on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.