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Gais vs Trelleborg — Superettan 2018

Gais
Gais
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
5/7/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 6Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Gais44%
×Draw26%
Trelleborg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.48
Trelleborg
1.18

Gais creates 25% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 110 away

creates per match

Gais
1.25
Trelleborg
1.15

allows per match

Gais
1.21
Trelleborg
1.72

finishing

Gais+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gais or draw
70%
Gais or Trelleborg
74%
Draw or Trelleborg
56%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
22%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
77%
Gais 2+ goals
43%
Gais 3+ goals
19%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
69%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
33%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
59%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.25 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

Trelleborg attack 1.15 + Gais defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gais scores more
44%
level
26%
Trelleborg scores more
30%

Gais at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gais vs Trelleborg

Gais beat Trelleborg 2-1 in Superettan on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.