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Gais vs Mjallby AIF — Allsvenskan 2018

Gais
Gais
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
8/25/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 21Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Gais49%
×Draw25%
Mjallby AIF26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.64
Mjallby AIF
1.13

Gais creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Gais
1.57
Mjallby AIF
1.26

allows per match

Gais
1.00
Mjallby AIF
1.71

finishing

Gais+0.18scores more
Mjallby AIF+0.74scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Mjallby AIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gais or draw
74%
Gais or Mjallby AIF
75%
Draw or Mjallby AIF
51%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
26%
Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
81%
Gais 2+ goals
49%
Gais 3+ goals
23%
Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
68%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
31%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
65%
Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.71 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.57 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mjallby AIF attack 1.26 + Gais defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gais scores more
49%
level
25%
Mjallby AIF scores more
26%

Gais at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gais vs Mjallby AIF

Mjallby AIF beat Gais 2-0 in Allsvenskan on August 25, 2025.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.