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Gais vs Malmo FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Gais
Gais
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
3/1/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gais29%
×Draw22%
Malmo FF48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.46
Malmo FF
1.92

Malmo FF creates 32% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Gais
2.36
Malmo FF
2.93

allows per match

Gais
0.91
Malmo FF
0.57

finishing

Gais+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gais or draw
52%
Gais or Malmo FF
78%
Draw or Malmo FF
71%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
13%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
77%
Gais 2+ goals
43%
Gais 3+ goals
18%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
85%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
57%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
38%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 2.93, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 2.36 + Malmo FF defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Malmo FF attack 2.93 + Gais defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gais scores more
29%
level
22%
Malmo FF scores more
48%

Malmo FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Gais 1–0 Malmo FF

Gais beat Malmo FF 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on March 1, 2021.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.