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Gais vs Eskilsminne — Svenska Cupen 2019

Gais
Gais
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Eskilsminne
Eskilsminne
3/8/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Valhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gais51%
×Draw24%
Eskilsminne24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.68
Eskilsminne
1.08

Gais creates 56% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Gais
2.36
Eskilsminne
1.25

allows per match

Gais
0.91
Eskilsminne
1.00

finishing

Gais+0.00on par
Eskilsminne+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Eskilsminne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gais or draw
76%
Gais or Eskilsminne
76%
Draw or Eskilsminne
49%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
28%
Eskilsminne wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
81%
Gais 2+ goals
50%
Gais 3+ goals
24%
Eskilsminne 1+ goals
66%
Eskilsminne 2+ goals
29%
Eskilsminne 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
68%
Eskilsminne (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Eskilsminne away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 2.36 + Eskilsminne defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Eskilsminne attack 1.25 + Gais defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gais scores more
51%
level
24%
Eskilsminne scores more
24%

Gais at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Gais 4–1 Eskilsminne

Gais beat Eskilsminne 4-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Valhalla IP in Göteborg.