Gais 1–1 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats | Superettan

Gais

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dalkurd FF

M. Kargbo 79'

Ü. Aras 32'

12/5/2021

Superettan · Relegation RoundGamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Gais46%

×Draw26%

Dalkurd FF28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaisExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Gais

1.48

Dalkurd FF

1.10

Gais creates 35% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 48 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Gais

1.25

Dalkurd FF

1.00

allows per match

Gais

1.21

Dalkurd FF

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gais+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gais or draw

72%

Gais or Dalkurd FF

74%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

54%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+

23%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals

77%

Gais 2+ goals

43%

Gais 3+ goals

19%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

67%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

30%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)

62%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.25 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dalkurd FF attack 1.00 + Gais defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gais scores more

46%

level

26%

Dalkurd FF scores more

28%

Gais at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

45+1'

45+1'

46'

58'

S. Izountouemoi← R. Rahmani

63'

K. Kostons

63'

A. Simovski← E. Montagna

64'

J. Lindberg← J. Andersson

64'

M. Kargbo← V. Alexandersson

72'

F. Örnblom← J. Åberg

76'

A. Simovski

78'

Fabio← A. Kabashi

79'

M. Kargbo

Gais

Dalkurd

1

Viscosi

5

Ismail

4

⚽

Aras

16

▼

23

21

32

10

22

▼

Montagna

7

▼

14

1

5

6

26

24

18

4

▼

Åberg

25

Lindberg

21

Alexander

16

▼

Andersson

8

▼

Alexander

Manager: S. Jacobsson

64'▲J. Lindberg←▼J. Andersson

64'▲M. Kargbo←▼V. Alexandersson

72'▲F. Örnblom←▼J. Åberg

Gais substitutes

11Lindberg14Kargbo3Örnblom7Ladan10Egnell32Ibrahim33Ekman

Manager: Y. Aras

58'▲S. Izountouemoi←▼R. Rahmani

63'▲A. Simovski←▼E. Montagna

78'▲Fabio←▼A. Kabashi

Dalkurd FF substitutes

99Izountouemoi3Simovski2Fabio6Zurmati8Söderström11Rahmani31Gadd-Berglund

Superettan: Gais 1–1 Dalkurd FF

Gais and Dalkurd FF drew 1-1 in Superettan on December 5, 2021.

Goals: Ü. Aras (32'), M. Kargbo (79').

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.

Gais vs Dalkurd FF — Superettan 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Superettan: Gais 1–1 Dalkurd FF