Gainare Tottori 2–2 Kataller Toyama: Result & Stats

Gainare Tottori

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Kataller Toyama

F. Takayanagi 90+1'

N. Miki 37'

H. Sueki 28'

S. Usui 23'

10/27/2024

League #100 · Round 34Axis Bird Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gainare Tottori44%

×Draw27%

Kataller Toyama28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gainare TottoriExpected goals in this matchKataller Toyama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.02

Gainare Tottori

1.35

Kataller Toyama

1.02

Gainare Tottori creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.57

creates per match

0.75

1.29

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Gainare Tottori

1.57

Kataller Toyama

0.75

allows per match

Gainare Tottori

1.29

Kataller Toyama

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gainare Tottori+0.00on par

Kataller Toyama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gainare Tottori ↓

Kataller Toyama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gainare Tottori or draw

72%

Gainare Tottori or Kataller Toyama

73%

Draw or Kataller Toyama

56%

Winning margin

Gainare Tottori wins by 2+

21%

Kataller Toyama wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gainare Tottori 1+ goals

74%

Gainare Tottori 2+ goals

39%

Gainare Tottori 3+ goals

15%

Kataller Toyama 1+ goals

64%

Kataller Toyama 2+ goals

27%

Kataller Toyama 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gainare Tottori (draw refunded)

61%

Kataller Toyama (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gainare Tottori at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Kataller Toyama away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gainare Tottori attack 1.57 + Kataller Toyama defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kataller Toyama attack 0.75 + Gainare Tottori defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gainare Tottori scores more

44%

level

27%

Kataller Toyama scores more

28%

Gainare Tottori at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gainare Tottori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

S. Usui↳ K. Kamiyama

27'

Y. Kawai

28'

H. Sueki↳ T. Yoshihira

37'

N. Miki↳ Y. Togashi

54'

D. Soga

62'

S. Tanaka← S. Matsuki

62'

K. Tanaka← S. Maruyama

64'

Matheus Leiria← S. Usui

65'

K. Matsumoto← N. Inoue

66'

D. Matsuoka

70'

A. Hasegawa← Y. Togashi

70'

A. Tojo← N. Miki

74'

T. Ito← D. Matsuoka

75'

Y. Takahashi← T. Yoshihira

80'

K. Wakimoto← M. Oyama

90+1'

F. Takayanagi

Gainare

Kataller

1

Tagawa

5

Imase

4

A

Kamiyama

24

Kawai

8

▼

Matsuoka

20

▼

Oyama

16

⚽

Sueki

19

▼

Inoue

25

Yasumitsu

27

A

▼

Yoshihira

9

⚽

▼

31

6

4

34

16

▼

Maruyama

42

Kaneura

17

Ozawa

26

⚽

Takayanag

9

A

▼

Togashi

7

▼

Matsuki

19

⚽

▼

Miki

Manager: K. Hayashi

62'▲S. Tanaka←▼S. Matsuki

62'▲K. Tanaka←▼S. Maruyama

70'▲A. Hasegawa←▼Y. Togashi

70'▲A. Tojo←▼N. Miki

Gainare Tottori substitutes

18Tanaka8Tanaka33Hasegawa11Tojo29Koizumi54Tamashiro39Sakuraba

Manager: M. Otagiri

64'▲Matheus Leiria←▼S. Usui

65'▲K. Matsumoto←▼N. Inoue

74'▲T. Ito←▼D. Matsuoka

75'▲Y. Takahashi←▼T. Yoshihira

80'▲K. Wakimoto←▼M. Oyama

Kataller Toyama substitutes

10Leiria11Matsumoto18Ito33Takahashi2Wakimoto42Hirao23Nishiya