Gainare Tottori 2–0 FC Ryukyu: Result & Stats

Gainare Tottori

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Ryukyu

N. Miki 63', 32'

5/3/2025

League #100 · Round 11Axis Bird Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gainare Tottori44%

×Draw26%

FC Ryukyu30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gainare TottoriExpected goals in this matchFC Ryukyu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.15

Gainare Tottori

1.45

FC Ryukyu

1.15

Gainare Tottori creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gainare Tottori

1.57

FC Ryukyu

1.00

allows per match

Gainare Tottori

1.29

FC Ryukyu

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gainare Tottori+0.00on par

FC Ryukyu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gainare Tottori ↓

FC Ryukyu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gainare Tottori or draw

70%

Gainare Tottori or FC Ryukyu

74%

Draw or FC Ryukyu

56%

Winning margin

Gainare Tottori wins by 2+

21%

FC Ryukyu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gainare Tottori 1+ goals

77%

Gainare Tottori 2+ goals

42%

Gainare Tottori 3+ goals

18%

FC Ryukyu 1+ goals

68%

FC Ryukyu 2+ goals

32%

FC Ryukyu 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gainare Tottori (draw refunded)

59%

FC Ryukyu (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gainare Tottori at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

FC Ryukyu away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gainare Tottori attack 1.57 + FC Ryukyu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

FC Ryukyu attack 1.00 + Gainare Tottori defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gainare Tottori scores more

44%

level

26%

FC Ryukyu scores more

30%

Gainare Tottori at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gainare Tottori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

44'

45+2'

57'

57'

M. Sato← Y. Tomidokoro

62'

I. Yoshida← Y. Togashi

63'

N. Miki↳ I. Yoshida

71'

I. Fujita← H. Ozawa

71'

M. Fukoin← A. Tojo

71'

S. Hiramatsu← S. Iwamoto

71'

D. Takagi← A. Narita

79'

R. Iwabuchi← S. Nagai

80'

K. Handa← N. Miki

Gainare

FC

16

4

15

3

14

24

13

▼

Iwamoto

7

▼

Motegi

10

▼

Tomidokor

20

▼

Nagai

32

▼

31

3

4

55

34

16

11

▼

Tojo

7

▼

Ozawa

21

A

Kawamura

19

⚽2

▼

Miki

10

▼

Togashi

Manager: Kentaro Hayashi

62'▲I. Yoshida←▼Y. Togashi

71'▲I. Fujita←▼H. Ozawa

71'▲M. Fukoin←▼A. Tojo

80'▲K. Handa←▼N. Miki

Gainare Tottori substitutes

39Sakuraba6Nukui8Tanaka2Fujita14Fukoin42Kaneura9Tanada18Handa22Yoshida

Manager: Tadaaki Hirakawa

57'▲T. Einaga←▼S. Motegi

57'▲M. Sato←▼Y. Tomidokoro

71'▲S. Hiramatsu←▼S. Iwamoto

71'▲D. Takagi←▼A. Narita

79'▲R. Iwabuchi←▼S. Nagai

FC Ryukyu substitutes

21Takayama8Iwabuchi17Einaga18Hiramatsu28Tsuha19Sato39Ihara89Takagi

League #100: Gainare Tottori 2–0 FC Ryukyu

Gainare Tottori beat FC Ryukyu 2-0 in League #100 on May 3, 2025.

Goals: N. Miki (32', 63').

The match was played at Axis Bird Stadium in Tottori.

Gainare Tottori vs FC Ryukyu — League #100 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #100: Gainare Tottori 2–0 FC Ryukyu