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Gagra vs Tskhinvali — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Gagra
Gagra
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tskhinvali
Tskhinvali
9/23/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 27Mukhianis Sportuli Kompleksi (Tbilisi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gagra63%
×Draw22%
Tskhinvali15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gagra
1.81
Tskhinvali
0.75

Gagra creates 141% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gagra
1.79
Tskhinvali
0.83

allows per match

Gagra
0.67
Tskhinvali
1.83

finishing

Gagra+0.00on par
Tskhinvali+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagra ↓

Tskhinvali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gagra or draw
85%
Gagra or Tskhinvali
78%
Draw or Tskhinvali
37%

Winning margin

Gagra wins by 2+
37%
Tskhinvali wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gagra 1+ goals
84%
Gagra 2+ goals
54%
Gagra 3+ goals
27%
Tskhinvali 1+ goals
53%
Tskhinvali 2+ goals
17%
Tskhinvali 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gagra (draw refunded)
81%
Tskhinvali (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagra at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.67 · 42 matches

Tskhinvali away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagra attack 1.79 + Tskhinvali defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tskhinvali attack 0.83 + Gagra defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gagra scores more
63%
level
22%
Tskhinvali scores more
15%

Gagra at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gagra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gagra vs Tskhinvali

Gagra beat Tskhinvali 3-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 23, 2019.

The match was played at Mukhianis Sportuli Kompleksi (Tbilisi).