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Gagra vs Shukura — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Gagra
Gagra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shukura
Shukuraadvanced
10/28/2021David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Quarter-finalsZghvis Baza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gagra43%
×Draw26%
Shukura31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gagra
1.42
Shukura
1.17

Gagra creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Gagra
2.33
Shukura
1.00

allows per match

Gagra
1.33
Shukura
0.50

finishing

Gagra+0.00on par
Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagra ↓

Shukura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gagra or draw
69%
Gagra or Shukura
74%
Draw or Shukura
57%

Winning margin

Gagra wins by 2+
20%
Shukura wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gagra 1+ goals
76%
Gagra 2+ goals
41%
Gagra 3+ goals
17%
Shukura 1+ goals
69%
Shukura 2+ goals
33%
Shukura 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gagra (draw refunded)
58%
Shukura (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagra at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Shukura away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagra attack 2.33 + Shukura defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Shukura attack 1.00 + Gagra defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gagra scores more
43%
level
26%
Shukura scores more
31%

Gagra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gagra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gagra vs Shukura

Shukura beat Gagra 2-1 in David Kipiani Cup on October 28, 2021.

The match was played at Zghvis Baza in Tbilisi.