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Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Gagra
Gagra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
5/3/2025Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 12David Petriashvili Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Gagra29%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Batumi45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gagra
1.14
Dinamo Batumi
1.49

Dinamo Batumi creates 31% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 128 away

creates per match

Gagra
1.18
Dinamo Batumi
1.52

allows per match

Gagra
1.46
Dinamo Batumi
1.10

finishing

Gagra+0.00on par
Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagra ↓

Dinamo Batumi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gagra or draw
55%
Gagra or Dinamo Batumi
74%
Draw or Dinamo Batumi
71%

Winning margin

Gagra wins by 2+
12%
Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gagra 1+ goals
68%
Gagra 2+ goals
32%
Gagra 3+ goals
11%
Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
44%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gagra (draw refunded)
39%
Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 85 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagra attack 1.18 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.52 + Gagra defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gagra scores more
29%
level
26%
Dinamo Batumi scores more
45%

Dinamo Batumi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Gagra 1–1 Dinamo Batumi

Gagra and Dinamo Batumi drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at David Petriashvili Stadium in Tbilisi.