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Gagauziya-Oguzsport vs CSF Bălți — Cupa 2020

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
CSF Bălți
CSF Bălțiadvanced
V. Dobrioglo 44'
P. Neagu 86', 74'
S. Mișcov 81'
M. Nwautobo 61'
4/5/2023CupaCupa · Quarter-finalsStadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport37%
×Draw25%
CSF Bălți38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.43
CSF Bălți
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.00
CSF Bălți
1.14

allows per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.75
CSF Bălți
1.86

finishing

Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par
CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagauziya-Oguzsport ↓

CSF Bălți →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gagauziya-Oguzsport or draw
62%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport or CSF Bălți
75%
Draw or CSF Bălți
63%

Winning margin

Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+
17%
CSF Bălți wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals
76%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals
42%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals
17%
CSF Bălți 1+ goals
76%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
42%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)
50%
CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

CSF Bălți away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 1.00 + CSF Bălți defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

CSF Bălți attack 1.14 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more
37%
level
25%
CSF Bălți scores more
38%

CSF Bălți at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CSF Bălți will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
V. Dobrioglo
61'
M. Nwautobo
74'
P. Neagu
81'
S. Mișcov
86'
P. Neagu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1–4 CSF Bălți

CSF Bălți beat Gagauziya-Oguzsport 4-1 in Cupa on April 5, 2023.

Goals: V. Dobrioglo (44'), M. Nwautobo (61'), P. Neagu (74', 86'), S. Mișcov (81').

The match was played at Stadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva in Komrat.