Gaflenz 3–0 USC Rohrbach: Result & Stats

Gaflenz

FT

3 – 0

USC Rohrbach

9/7/2019

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 6Sportzentrum Gaflenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gaflenz52%

×Draw22%

USC Rohrbach27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaflenzExpected goals in this matchUSC Rohrbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.41

Gaflenz

2.04

USC Rohrbach

1.41

Gaflenz creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 71 away

2.13

creates per match

1.06

1.75

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Gaflenz

2.13

USC Rohrbach

1.06

allows per match

Gaflenz

1.75

USC Rohrbach

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaflenz+0.00on par

USC Rohrbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaflenz ↓

USC Rohrbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Gaflenz or draw

73%

Gaflenz or USC Rohrbach

78%

Draw or USC Rohrbach

48%

Winning margin

Gaflenz wins by 2+

30%

USC Rohrbach wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gaflenz 1+ goals

87%

Gaflenz 2+ goals

60%

Gaflenz 3+ goals

33%

USC Rohrbach 1+ goals

76%

USC Rohrbach 2+ goals

41%

USC Rohrbach 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gaflenz (draw refunded)

66%

USC Rohrbach (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaflenz at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

USC Rohrbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.94 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaflenz attack 2.13 + USC Rohrbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.04

USC Rohrbach attack 1.06 + Gaflenz defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gaflenz scores more

52%

level

22%

USC Rohrbach scores more

27%

Gaflenz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gaflenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff