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Gaflenz vs Retz — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Gaflenz
Gaflenz
CANC
14:30
Retz
Retz
5/17/2020Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 26Sportzentrum Gaflenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gaflenz39%
×Draw23%
Retz38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaflenz
1.62
Retz
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 70 away

creates per match

Gaflenz
2.13
Retz
1.43

allows per match

Gaflenz
1.75
Retz
1.11

finishing

Gaflenz+0.00on par
Retz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaflenz ↓

Retz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gaflenz or draw
62%
Gaflenz or Retz
77%
Draw or Retz
61%

Winning margin

Gaflenz wins by 2+
19%
Retz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gaflenz 1+ goals
80%
Gaflenz 2+ goals
48%
Gaflenz 3+ goals
22%
Retz 1+ goals
80%
Retz 2+ goals
47%
Retz 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Gaflenz (draw refunded)
51%
Retz (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaflenz at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Retz away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaflenz attack 2.13 + Retz defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.62

Retz attack 1.43 + Gaflenz defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gaflenz scores more
39%
level
23%
Retz scores more
38%

Gaflenz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gaflenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gaflenz host Retz

May 17, 2020: Gaflenz take on Retz in Landesliga - Niederosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gaflenz host Retz at Sportzentrum Gaflenz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.