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Gaflenz vs Ortmann — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Gaflenz
Gaflenz
CANC
00:00
Ortmann
Ortmann
4/5/2020Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 20Sportzentrum Gaflenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gaflenz50%
×Draw22%
Ortmann28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaflenz
1.97
Ortmann
1.42

Gaflenz creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 86 away

creates per match

Gaflenz
2.13
Ortmann
1.08

allows per match

Gaflenz
1.75
Ortmann
1.81

finishing

Gaflenz+0.00on par
Ortmann+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaflenz ↓

Ortmann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gaflenz or draw
72%
Gaflenz or Ortmann
78%
Draw or Ortmann
50%

Winning margin

Gaflenz wins by 2+
29%
Ortmann wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gaflenz 1+ goals
86%
Gaflenz 2+ goals
58%
Gaflenz 3+ goals
31%
Ortmann 1+ goals
76%
Ortmann 2+ goals
41%
Ortmann 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gaflenz (draw refunded)
64%
Ortmann (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaflenz at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Ortmann away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaflenz attack 2.13 + Ortmann defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.97

Ortmann attack 1.08 + Gaflenz defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gaflenz scores more
50%
level
22%
Ortmann scores more
28%

Gaflenz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gaflenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gaflenz face Ortmann (Landesliga - Niederosterreich)

Landesliga - Niederosterreich returns with Gaflenz hosting Ortmann. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gaflenz host Ortmann at Sportzentrum Gaflenz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.