Gaflenz 5–2 Langenrohr: Result & Stats

Gaflenz

FT

5 – 2

Langenrohr

10/5/2019

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 10Sportzentrum Gaflenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gaflenz49%

×Draw22%

Langenrohr30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaflenzExpected goals in this matchLangenrohr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.52

Gaflenz

2.00

Langenrohr

1.52

Gaflenz creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 86 away

2.13

creates per match

1.28

1.75

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Gaflenz

2.13

Langenrohr

1.28

allows per match

Gaflenz

1.75

Langenrohr

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaflenz+0.00on par

Langenrohr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaflenz ↓

Langenrohr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Gaflenz or draw

70%

Gaflenz or Langenrohr

78%

Draw or Langenrohr

51%

Winning margin

Gaflenz wins by 2+

28%

Langenrohr wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gaflenz 1+ goals

86%

Gaflenz 2+ goals

59%

Gaflenz 3+ goals

32%

Langenrohr 1+ goals

78%

Langenrohr 2+ goals

45%

Langenrohr 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Gaflenz (draw refunded)

62%

Langenrohr (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaflenz at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Langenrohr away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.87 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaflenz attack 2.13 + Langenrohr defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.00

Langenrohr attack 1.28 + Gaflenz defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gaflenz scores more

49%

level

22%

Langenrohr scores more

30%

Gaflenz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gaflenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff