Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gaddafi vs Mbarara City — Premier League 2019

Gaddafi
Gaddafi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mbarara City
Mbarara City
11/11/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Gaddafi Barracks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gaddafi50%
×Draw28%
Mbarara City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaddafi
1.38
Mbarara City
0.81

Gaddafi creates 70% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 86 away

creates per match

Gaddafi
1.16
Mbarara City
0.72

allows per match

Gaddafi
0.91
Mbarara City
1.60

finishing

Gaddafi+0.00on par
Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaddafi ↓

Mbarara City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gaddafi or draw
78%
Gaddafi or Mbarara City
72%
Draw or Mbarara City
50%

Winning margin

Gaddafi wins by 2+
24%
Mbarara City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gaddafi 1+ goals
75%
Gaddafi 2+ goals
40%
Gaddafi 3+ goals
16%
Mbarara City 1+ goals
56%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
19%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gaddafi (draw refunded)
70%
Mbarara City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaddafi at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaddafi attack 1.16 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + Gaddafi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gaddafi scores more
50%
level
28%
Mbarara City scores more
22%

Gaddafi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gaddafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gaddafi vs Mbarara City

Gaddafi beat Mbarara City 2-1 in Premier League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gaddafi Barracks in Jinja.