Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gaddafi vs Bright Stars — Premier League 2019

Gaddafi
Gaddafi
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bright Stars
Bright Stars
11/23/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Gaddafi Barracks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gaddafi45%
×Draw29%
Bright Stars26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaddafi
1.28
Bright Stars
0.89

Gaddafi creates 44% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 83 away

creates per match

Gaddafi
1.16
Bright Stars
0.86

allows per match

Gaddafi
0.91
Bright Stars
1.41

finishing

Gaddafi+0.00on par
Bright Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaddafi ↓

Bright Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gaddafi or draw
74%
Gaddafi or Bright Stars
71%
Draw or Bright Stars
55%

Winning margin

Gaddafi wins by 2+
21%
Bright Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gaddafi 1+ goals
72%
Gaddafi 2+ goals
37%
Gaddafi 3+ goals
14%
Bright Stars 1+ goals
59%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
22%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gaddafi (draw refunded)
64%
Bright Stars (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaddafi at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Bright Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaddafi attack 1.16 + Bright Stars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bright Stars attack 0.86 + Gaddafi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gaddafi scores more
45%
level
29%
Bright Stars scores more
26%

Gaddafi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gaddafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gaddafi vs Bright Stars

Gaddafi and Bright Stars drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Gaddafi Barracks in Jinja.