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Gać Oława vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
3 – 1
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
9/12/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gać Oława36%
×Draw22%
Piast Żmigród42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
1.70
Piast Żmigród
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
58%
Gać Oława or Piast Żmigród
78%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
64%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
18%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
82%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
51%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
24%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
84%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
55%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
46%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.70

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gać Oława scores more
36%
level
22%
Piast Żmigród scores more
42%

Piast Żmigród at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Piast Żmigród will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gać Oława vs Piast Żmigród

Gać Oława beat Piast Żmigród 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.