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Gać Oława vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
1 – 0
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
5/29/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gać Oława30%
×Draw24%
Goczałkowice Zdrój47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
1.33
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.73

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 30% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 102 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.22

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.37

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
53%
Gać Oława or Goczałkowice Zdrój
76%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
70%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
13%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
74%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
38%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
15%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
82%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
52%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
39%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gać Oława scores more
30%
level
24%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
47%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gać Oława 1–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój

Gać Oława beat Goczałkowice Zdrój 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.