FYR Macedonia 1–1 Moldova: Result & Stats

FYR Macedonia

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Moldova

3/22/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Mardan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FYR Macedonia55%

×Draw27%

Moldova18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FYR MacedoniaExpected goals in this matchMoldova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.70

FYR Macedonia

1.44

Moldova

0.70

FYR Macedonia creates 106% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

0.65

0.75

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

FYR Macedonia

1.13

Moldova

0.65

allows per match

FYR Macedonia

0.75

Moldova

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Moldova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Moldova →

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw

82%

FYR Macedonia or Moldova

73%

Draw or Moldova

45%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

28%

Moldova wins by 2+

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

76%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

42%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

18%

Moldova 1+ goals

50%

Moldova 2+ goals

16%

Moldova 3+ goals

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

75%

Moldova (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Moldova away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.13 + Moldova defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Moldova attack 0.65 + FYR Macedonia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more

55%

level

27%

Moldova scores more

18%

FYR Macedonia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff