FYR Macedonia 1–0 Israel: Result & Stats

FYR Macedonia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Israel

B. Nikolov 45+2'

11/19/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 10Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FYR Macedonia46%

×Draw23%

Israel31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FYR MacedoniaExpected goals in this matchIsrael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.39

FYR Macedonia

1.75

Israel

1.39

FYR Macedonia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.29

creates per match

1.20

1.57

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

FYR Macedonia

1.29

Israel

1.20

allows per match

FYR Macedonia

1.57

Israel

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Israel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FYR Macedonia ↓

Israel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FYR Macedonia or draw

69%

FYR Macedonia or Israel

77%

Draw or Israel

54%

Winning margin

FYR Macedonia wins by 2+

25%

Israel wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FYR Macedonia 1+ goals

83%

FYR Macedonia 2+ goals

52%

FYR Macedonia 3+ goals

25%

Israel 1+ goals

75%

Israel 2+ goals

40%

Israel 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)

60%

Israel (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FYR Macedonia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Israel away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FYR Macedonia attack 1.29 + Israel defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

Israel attack 1.20 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FYR Macedonia scores more

46%

level

23%

Israel scores more

31%

FYR Macedonia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FYR Macedonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

B. Nikolov

FYR Macedonia · M

8.1

Match Events

29'

Enis Bardhi

35'

Dia Saba

35'

Dan Glazer

41'

O. Dgani← E. Dasa

45+2'

B. Nikolov

59'

D. Haziza← I. Elmakayes

60'

Boban Nikolov

61'

I. Nestorovski← V. Stojanovski

68'

S. Weissman← D. Saba

72'

G. Zajkov← D. Velkovski

79'

D. Avramovski← G. Pandev

82'

Sun Menachem

88'

Munas Dabbur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FYRIsrael

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots10

9Corners4

5Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots10

5On Target5

7Off Target3

3Blocked2

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

399Total Passes539

294Accurate Passes439

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2