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Fyllingsdalen vs Skeid II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Skeid II
Skeid II
5/1/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 4Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fyllingsdalen40%
×Draw19%
Skeid II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fyllingsdalen
2.38
Skeid II
2.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.31
Skeid II
2.31

allows per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.54
Skeid II
2.46

finishing

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par
Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fyllingsdalen ↓

Skeid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Fyllingsdalen or draw
59%
Fyllingsdalen or Skeid II
81%
Draw or Skeid II
60%

Winning margin

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
23%
Skeid II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
91%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
68%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
42%
Skeid II 1+ goals
91%
Skeid II 2+ goals
69%
Skeid II 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
49%
Skeid II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fyllingsdalen at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Skeid II away — creates 2.31, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fyllingsdalen attack 2.31 + Skeid II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.38

Skeid II attack 2.31 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fyllingsdalen scores more
40%
level
19%
Skeid II scores more
41%

Skeid II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Fyllingsdalen 1–3 Skeid II

Skeid II beat Fyllingsdalen 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.