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Fyllingsdalen vs Mjølner — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mjølner
Mjølner
4/20/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 3Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fyllingsdalen39%
×Draw22%
Mjølner39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fyllingsdalen
1.85
Mjølner
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Fyllingsdalen
1.54
Mjølner
1.57

allows per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.15
Mjølner
2.17

finishing

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par
Mjølner+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fyllingsdalen ↓

Mjølner →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fyllingsdalen or draw
61%
Fyllingsdalen or Mjølner
78%
Draw or Mjølner
61%

Winning margin

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
21%
Mjølner wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
84%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
55%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
28%
Mjølner 1+ goals
84%
Mjølner 2+ goals
55%
Mjølner 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
50%
Mjølner (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fyllingsdalen at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Mjølner away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.54 + Mjølner defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Mjølner attack 1.57 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fyllingsdalen scores more
39%
level
22%
Mjølner scores more
39%

Fyllingsdalen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fyllingsdalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Fyllingsdalen 2–1 Mjølner

Fyllingsdalen beat Mjølner 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.