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Fyllingsdalen vs Kjelsås II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kjelsås II
Kjelsås II
P. T. Hauge 7'
10/8/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 24Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fyllingsdalen42%
×Draw22%
Kjelsås II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fyllingsdalen
1.84
Kjelsås II
1.66

Fyllingsdalen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.31
Kjelsås II
0.77

allows per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.54
Kjelsås II
1.38

finishing

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par
Kjelsås II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fyllingsdalen ↓

Kjelsås II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Fyllingsdalen or draw
65%
Fyllingsdalen or Kjelsås II
78%
Draw or Kjelsås II
58%

Winning margin

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
23%
Kjelsås II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
84%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
55%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
28%
Kjelsås II 1+ goals
81%
Kjelsås II 2+ goals
49%
Kjelsås II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
55%
Kjelsås II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fyllingsdalen at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Kjelsås II away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fyllingsdalen attack 2.31 + Kjelsås II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kjelsås II attack 0.77 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fyllingsdalen scores more
42%
level
22%
Kjelsås II scores more
35%

Fyllingsdalen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fyllingsdalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
P. T. Hauge
85'
M. Christophersen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Fyllingsdalen 1–0 Kjelsås II

Fyllingsdalen beat Kjelsås II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 8, 2022.

Goals: P. T. Hauge (7').

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.