Fyllingsdalen 1–1 Innstranden: Result & Stats

Fyllingsdalen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Innstranden

5/18/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 7Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fyllingsdalen43%

×Draw22%

Innstranden34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FyllingsdalenExpected goals in this matchInnstranden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.61

Fyllingsdalen

1.84

Innstranden

1.61

Fyllingsdalen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.54

creates per match

1.08

2.15

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Fyllingsdalen

1.54

Innstranden

1.08

allows per match

Fyllingsdalen

2.15

Innstranden

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Innstranden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fyllingsdalen ↓

Innstranden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Fyllingsdalen or draw

66%

Fyllingsdalen or Innstranden

78%

Draw or Innstranden

57%

Winning margin

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+

23%

Innstranden wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals

84%

Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals

55%

Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals

28%

Innstranden 1+ goals

80%

Innstranden 2+ goals

48%

Innstranden 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)

56%

Innstranden (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fyllingsdalen at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Innstranden away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.54 + Innstranden defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.84

Innstranden attack 1.08 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fyllingsdalen scores more

43%

level

22%

Innstranden scores more

34%

Fyllingsdalen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fyllingsdalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff