Fyllingsdalen 2–1 HamKam II: Result & Stats

Fyllingsdalen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

HamKam II

9/1/2024

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 19Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fyllingsdalen42%

×Draw20%

HamKam II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FyllingsdalenExpected goals in this matchHamKam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

2.19

Fyllingsdalen

2.27

HamKam II

2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.54

creates per match

2.23

2.15

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Fyllingsdalen

1.54

HamKam II

2.23

allows per match

Fyllingsdalen

2.15

HamKam II

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fyllingsdalen ↓

HamKam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Fyllingsdalen or draw

61%

Fyllingsdalen or HamKam II

80%

Draw or HamKam II

58%

Winning margin

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+

24%

HamKam II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals

90%

Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals

66%

Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals

39%

HamKam II 1+ goals

89%

HamKam II 2+ goals

64%

HamKam II 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)

52%

HamKam II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fyllingsdalen at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

HamKam II away — creates 2.23, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.54 + HamKam II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

HamKam II attack 2.23 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fyllingsdalen scores more

42%

level

20%

HamKam II scores more

39%

Fyllingsdalen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fyllingsdalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff