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Fyllingsdalen vs Fredrikstad II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
9/29/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 23Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fyllingsdalen45%
×Draw21%
Fredrikstad II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fyllingsdalen
2.04
Fredrikstad II
1.73

Fyllingsdalen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Fyllingsdalen
1.54
Fredrikstad II
1.31

allows per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.15
Fredrikstad II
2.54

finishing

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par
Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fyllingsdalen ↓

Fredrikstad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Fyllingsdalen or draw
67%
Fyllingsdalen or Fredrikstad II
79%
Draw or Fredrikstad II
55%

Winning margin

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
26%
Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
87%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
60%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
33%
Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
82%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
52%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
58%
Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fyllingsdalen at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.54 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.04

Fredrikstad II attack 1.31 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fyllingsdalen scores more
45%
level
21%
Fredrikstad II scores more
33%

Fyllingsdalen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fyllingsdalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fyllingsdalen vs Fredrikstad II

Fredrikstad II beat Fyllingsdalen 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.