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Fyllingsdalen vs Bremnes — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
FT
8 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Bremnes
Bremnes
T. Adonaba 90+2', 75', 72'
J. Eriksen 70'
J. Eide 58'
M. Raum 31'
N. Antonsen 28'
K. Brakstad 15'
10/22/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 25Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fyllingsdalen55%
×Draw19%
Bremnes26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fyllingsdalen
2.54
Bremnes
1.72

Fyllingsdalen creates 48% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

creates per match

Fyllingsdalen
1.95
Bremnes
1.19

allows per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.26
Bremnes
3.12

finishing

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par
Bremnes+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fyllingsdalen ↓

Bremnes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Fyllingsdalen or draw
74%
Fyllingsdalen or Bremnes
81%
Draw or Bremnes
45%

Winning margin

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
35%
Bremnes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
92%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
72%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
46%
Bremnes 1+ goals
82%
Bremnes 2+ goals
51%
Bremnes 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
68%
Bremnes (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fyllingsdalen at home — creates 1.95, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Bremnes away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.95 + Bremnes defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.54

Bremnes attack 1.19 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fyllingsdalen scores more
55%
level
19%
Bremnes scores more
26%

Fyllingsdalen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fyllingsdalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
K. Brakstad
28'
N. Antonsen
31'
M. Raum
58'
J. Eide
70'
J. Eriksen
72'
T. Adonaba
75'
T. Adonaba
90+2'
T. Adonaba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fyllingsdalen vs Bremnes

Fyllingsdalen beat Bremnes 8-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 22, 2023.

Goals: K. Brakstad (15'), N. Antonsen (28'), M. Raum (31'), J. Eide (58'), J. Eriksen (70'), T. Adonaba (72', 75', 90+2').

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.