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Fylkir vs Úlfarnir — Cup 2019

Fylkir
Fylkir
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Úlfarnir
Úlfarnir
4/21/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundWürth völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Fylkir71%
×Draw15%
Úlfarnir14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fylkir
3.18
Úlfarnir
1.41

Fylkir creates 126% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Fylkir
3.36
Úlfarnir
2.00

allows per match

Fylkir
0.82
Úlfarnir
3.00

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par
Úlfarnir+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Úlfarnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw
86%
Fylkir or Úlfarnir
85%
Draw or Úlfarnir
29%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+
52%
Úlfarnir wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals
96%
Fylkir 2+ goals
82%
Fylkir 3+ goals
60%
Úlfarnir 1+ goals
76%
Úlfarnir 2+ goals
41%
Úlfarnir 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)
83%
Úlfarnir (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 3.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Úlfarnir away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 3.36 + Úlfarnir defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.18

Úlfarnir attack 2.00 + Fylkir defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Fylkir scores more
71%
level
15%
Úlfarnir scores more
14%

Fylkir at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Fylkir 5–0 Úlfarnir

Fylkir beat Úlfarnir 5-0 in Cup on April 21, 2022.

The match was played at Würth völlurinn in Reykjavík.