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Fylkir vs Thor Akureyri — 1. Deild 2026

Fylkir
Fylkir
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Thor Akureyri
Thor Akureyri
E. Wohler 13' (pen)
E. Halldorsson 84'
J. Guardia 19'
8/8/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 16tekk VÖLLURINN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fylkir41%
×Draw21%
Thor Akureyri37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fylkir
1.94
Thor Akureyri
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fylkir
2.09
Thor Akureyri
2.21

allows per match

Fylkir
1.45
Thor Akureyri
1.79

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par
Thor Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Thor Akureyri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw
63%
Fylkir or Thor Akureyri
79%
Draw or Thor Akureyri
59%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+
22%
Thor Akureyri wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals
86%
Fylkir 2+ goals
58%
Fylkir 3+ goals
30%
Thor Akureyri 1+ goals
84%
Thor Akureyri 2+ goals
54%
Thor Akureyri 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)
53%
Thor Akureyri (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Thor Akureyri away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 2.09 + Thor Akureyri defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.94

Thor Akureyri attack 2.21 + Fylkir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fylkir scores more
41%
level
21%
Thor Akureyri scores more
37%

Fylkir at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
C. Jakobsen← C. Jakobsen
13'
E. WohlerPenalty
15'
O. Sigurjonsson
19'
J. Guardia
43'
Y. Geirsson
46'
O. Sigurjonsson← O. Sigurjonsson
60'
B. Eythorsson← B. Eythorsson
70'
M. Hilmarsson← M. Hilmarsson
70'
N. Gunnarsson← N. Gunnarsson
70'
I. Kristjansson← I. Kristjansson
70'
Y. Geirsson← Y. Geirsson
78'
H. Thordarson← E. Wohler
80'
K. Kristjansson← K. Kristjansson
84'
E. Halldorsson
85'
H. Catano
90'
H. Runarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Fylkir 1–2 Thor Akureyri

Thor Akureyri beat Fylkir 2-1 in 1. Deild on August 8, 2025.

Goals: E. Wohler (13' pen), J. Guardia (19'), E. Halldorsson (84').

The match was played at tekk VÖLLURINN in Reykjavík.