Fylkir 2–3 FH hafnarfjordur: Result & Stats

Fylkir

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

FH hafnarfjordur

Orri Stefánsson 12'

E. Ásmundsson 2'

A. Guðjohnsen 82'

B. Sverrisson 60', 8'

8/25/2024

Úrvalsdeild · Round 20Würth völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fylkir43%

×Draw21%

FH hafnarfjordur37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FylkirExpected goals in this matchFH hafnarfjordur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.98

Fylkir

2.15

FH hafnarfjordur

1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 27 away

2.00

creates per match

1.63

2.33

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Fylkir

2.00

FH hafnarfjordur

1.63

allows per match

Fylkir

2.33

FH hafnarfjordur

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

FH hafnarfjordur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw

63%

Fylkir or FH hafnarfjordur

79%

Draw or FH hafnarfjordur

57%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+

24%

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals

88%

Fylkir 2+ goals

63%

Fylkir 3+ goals

36%

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

86%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

59%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)

54%

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

FH hafnarfjordur away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 2.00 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.15

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.63 + Fylkir defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fylkir scores more

43%

level

21%

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

37%

Fylkir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

E. Ásmundsson↳ Þ. Hafþórsson

8'

B. Sverrisson↳ K. Finnbogason

12'

Orri Stefánsson↳ A. Ásþórsson

60'

B. Sverrisson↳ K. Halldórsson

66'

Á. Eyþórsson← Þóroddur Víkingsson

66'

T. Óskarsson← E. Ásmundsson

69'

A. Guðjohnsen← K. Finnbogason

72'

B. Eythorsson

79'

G. Tyrfingsson← Þ. Hafþórsson

82'

A. Guðjohnsen↳ B. Sverrisson

83'

F. Margeirsson← B. Sverrisson

86'

R. Sveinsson

89'

B. Bodvarsson

89'

B. Helgason← B. Brynjólfsson

Fylkir

FH

1

21

4

27

2

10

⚽2A

▼

Sverrisso

7

A

Halldórss

34

Róbertsso

16

▼

Brynjólfs

33

A

▼

Finnbogas

9

Hallsson

1

Helgason

5

⚽

Stefánsso

27

A

Ásþórsson

24

Jörundsso

8

Sveinsson

16

⚽

▼

Ásmundsso

11

A

▼

17

9

18

25

▼

Víkingsso

Manager: R. Sigmundsson

66'▲Á. Eyþórsson←▼Þóroddur Víkingsson

66'▲T. Óskarsson←▼E. Ásmundsson

79'▲G. Tyrfingsson←▼Þ. Hafþórsson

Fylkir substitutes

2Eyþórsson14Óskarsson70Tyrfingsson7Ólafsson4Stefánsson19Gíslason30Helgason

Manager: H. Guðjónsson

69'▲A. Guðjohnsen←▼K. Finnbogason

83'▲F. Margeirsson←▼B. Sverrisson

89'▲B. Helgason←▼B. Brynjólfsson

FH hafnarfjordur substitutes

11Guðjohnsen8Margeirsson37Helgason38Guðmundsson5Wakaka29Dimitrijevic24Arnarsson

Match Recap: Fylkir vs FH hafnarfjordur

FH hafnarfjordur beat Fylkir 3-2 in Úrvalsdeild on August 25, 2024.

Goals: E. Ásmundsson (2'), B. Sverrisson (8', 60'), Orri Stefánsson (12'), A. Guðjohnsen (82').

The match was played at Würth völlurinn in Reykjavík.

Fylkir vs FH hafnarfjordur — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fylkir vs FH hafnarfjordur