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Fylkir vs Afturelding — 1. Deild 2026

Fylkir
Fylkir
Preview
19:15
Afturelding
Afturelding
8/13/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 18
Big match
49%
Afturelding
model favours
29%22%49%

Afturelding have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fylkir29%
×Draw22%
Afturelding49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fylkir
1.50
Afturelding
2.00

Afturelding creates 33% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fylkir
2.09
Afturelding
2.54

allows per match

Fylkir
1.45
Afturelding
0.92

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par
Afturelding+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Afturelding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw
51%
Fylkir or Afturelding
78%
Draw or Afturelding
71%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+
13%
Afturelding wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals
78%
Fylkir 2+ goals
44%
Fylkir 3+ goals
19%
Afturelding 1+ goals
86%
Afturelding 2+ goals
59%
Afturelding 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)
37%
Afturelding (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Afturelding away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 2.09 + Afturelding defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.50

Afturelding attack 2.54 + Fylkir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fylkir scores more
29%
level
22%
Afturelding scores more
49%

Afturelding at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (71% and 75% over 2.5)
  • Fylkir score first in only 29% of matches
  • 75% of Afturelding’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 75% of Afturelding’s matches
  • 71% of Fylkir’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Fylkir 2 vs Afturelding 1

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Fylkir
WWLWW
Afturelding
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fylkir face Afturelding (1. Deild)

1. Deild returns with Fylkir hosting Afturelding. Match starts August 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.