Afturelding 0–2 Fylkir: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Afturelding

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Fylkir

B. Garðarsson 39', 23'

9/2/2022

1. Deild · Round 20Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Afturelding45%

×Draw21%

Fylkir35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AftureldingExpected goals in this matchFylkir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.88

Afturelding

2.15

Fylkir

1.88

Afturelding creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

2.75

creates per match

2.00

1.75

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Afturelding

2.75

Fylkir

2.00

allows per match

Afturelding

1.75

Fylkir

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par

Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

Fylkir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw

65%

Afturelding or Fylkir

79%

Draw or Fylkir

55%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+

26%

Fylkir wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals

88%

Afturelding 2+ goals

63%

Afturelding 3+ goals

36%

Fylkir 1+ goals

85%

Fylkir 2+ goals

56%

Fylkir 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)

56%

Fylkir (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 2.75 + Fylkir defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.15

Fylkir attack 2.00 + Afturelding defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Afturelding scores more

45%

level

21%

Fylkir scores more

35%

Afturelding at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

B. Garðarsson

25'

S. Sigurjónsson← Á. Ásgeirsson

39'

B. Garðarsson

46'

Pedro Vázquez← S. Snorrason

51'

N. V. Gunnarsson

54'

E. Ásmundsson← N. Gunnarsson

66'

Ó. Borgþórsson← B. Eyþórsson

76'

S. Friðriksson← H. Flosason

79'

G. B. Sigmarsson

82'

D. Ólafsson← B. Garðarsson

82'

Ómar Stefánsson← Þ. Hafþórsson

Afturelding

Fylkir

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Einarsson

25'▲S. Sigurjónsson←▼Á. Ásgeirsson

46'▲Pedro Vázquez←▼S. Snorrason

76'▲S. Friðriksson←▼H. Flosason

Afturelding substitutes

SigurjónssonVázquezFriðrikssonJóhannessonGíslasonTylerHlífarsson

Manager: R. Sigmundsson

54'▲E. Ásmundsson←▼N. Gunnarsson

66'▲Ó. Borgþórsson←▼B. Eyþórsson

82'▲D. Ólafsson←▼B. Garðarsson

82'▲Ómar Stefánsson←▼Þ. Hafþórsson

Fylkir substitutes

ÁsmundssonBorgþórssonÓlafssonStefánssonÁsgeirssonBrynjólfssonIngason