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Fylde W vs Durham Cestria W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Fylde W
Fylde W
FT
0 – 1
Durham Cestria W
Durham Cestria W
11/12/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundKellamergh Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fylde W60%
×Draw19%
Durham Cestria W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fylde W
2.47
Durham Cestria W
1.40

Fylde W creates 76% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fylde W
2.80
Durham Cestria W
1.00

allows per match

Fylde W
1.80
Durham Cestria W
2.14

finishing

Fylde W+0.00on par
Durham Cestria W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylde W ↓

Durham Cestria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Fylde W or draw
79%
Fylde W or Durham Cestria W
81%
Draw or Durham Cestria W
40%

Winning margin

Fylde W wins by 2+
39%
Durham Cestria W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fylde W 1+ goals
91%
Fylde W 2+ goals
70%
Fylde W 3+ goals
44%
Durham Cestria W 1+ goals
75%
Durham Cestria W 2+ goals
41%
Durham Cestria W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fylde W (draw refunded)
74%
Durham Cestria W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylde W at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Durham Cestria W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylde W attack 2.80 + Durham Cestria W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.47

Durham Cestria W attack 1.00 + Fylde W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fylde W scores more
60%
level
19%
Durham Cestria W scores more
21%

Fylde W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fylde W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Fylde W 0–1 Durham Cestria W

Durham Cestria W beat Fylde W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Kellamergh Park in Warton, Lancashire.