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FV Ravensburg vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FV Ravensburg
FV Ravensburg
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
8/4/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FV Ravensburg29%
×Draw22%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FV Ravensburg
1.44
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
1.91

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 33% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 51 away

creates per match

FV Ravensburg
1.67
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2.29

allows per match

FV Ravensburg
1.53
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
1.20

finishing

FV Ravensburg+0.00on par
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Ravensburg ↓

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FV Ravensburg or draw
51%
FV Ravensburg or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
78%
Draw or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
71%

Winning margin

FV Ravensburg wins by 2+
13%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

FV Ravensburg 1+ goals
76%
FV Ravensburg 2+ goals
42%
FV Ravensburg 3+ goals
18%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals
85%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals
57%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)
38%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Ravensburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Ravensburg attack 1.67 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.29 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FV Ravensburg scores more
29%
level
22%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more
49%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FV Ravensburg 0–4 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach beat FV Ravensburg 4-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental in Ravensburg.