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FV Ravensburg vs Offenburger FV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FV Ravensburg
FV Ravensburg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Offenburger FV
Offenburger FV
11/26/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 19Kunstrasen TSB Ravensburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FV Ravensburg62%
×Draw19%
Offenburger FV19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FV Ravensburg
2.35
Offenburger FV
1.23

FV Ravensburg creates 91% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

creates per match

FV Ravensburg
1.67
Offenburger FV
0.94

allows per match

FV Ravensburg
1.53
Offenburger FV
3.03

finishing

FV Ravensburg+0.00on par
Offenburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Ravensburg ↓

Offenburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FV Ravensburg or draw
81%
FV Ravensburg or Offenburger FV
81%
Draw or Offenburger FV
38%

Winning margin

FV Ravensburg wins by 2+
40%
Offenburger FV wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FV Ravensburg 1+ goals
90%
FV Ravensburg 2+ goals
68%
FV Ravensburg 3+ goals
41%
Offenburger FV 1+ goals
71%
Offenburger FV 2+ goals
35%
Offenburger FV 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)
77%
Offenburger FV (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Ravensburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

Offenburger FV away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Ravensburg attack 1.67 + Offenburger FV defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.35

Offenburger FV attack 0.94 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FV Ravensburg scores more
62%
level
19%
Offenburger FV scores more
19%

FV Ravensburg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FV Ravensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FV Ravensburg vs Offenburger FV

Offenburger FV beat FV Ravensburg 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasen TSB Ravensburg in Ravensburg.