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FV Ravensburg vs Normannia Gmünd — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FV Ravensburg
FV Ravensburg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
11/15/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 17EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

FV Ravensburg44%
×Draw24%
Normannia Gmünd32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FV Ravensburg
1.70
Normannia Gmünd
1.43

FV Ravensburg creates 19% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 51 away

creates per match

FV Ravensburg
1.67
Normannia Gmünd
1.33

allows per match

FV Ravensburg
1.53
Normannia Gmünd
1.73

finishing

FV Ravensburg+0.00on par
Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Ravensburg ↓

Normannia Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FV Ravensburg or draw
68%
FV Ravensburg or Normannia Gmünd
76%
Draw or Normannia Gmünd
56%

Winning margin

FV Ravensburg wins by 2+
23%
Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FV Ravensburg 1+ goals
82%
FV Ravensburg 2+ goals
51%
FV Ravensburg 3+ goals
24%
Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
76%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
42%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)
58%
Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Ravensburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Ravensburg attack 1.67 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.70

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FV Ravensburg scores more
44%
level
24%
Normannia Gmünd scores more
32%

FV Ravensburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FV Ravensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FV Ravensburg 2–2 Normannia Gmünd

FV Ravensburg and Normannia Gmünd drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental in Ravensburg.